Somalias large counter-offensive against Shabaab is currently stalled and its much touted next phase continues to be delayed. In response, Shabaab, al Qaedas branch in East Africa, seeks to gain the initiative against the nearly year-long offensive against it. 

A brazen hotel siege and targeted assassinations in Mogadishu, in addition to a series of major raids against military bases around the country, demonstrate Shabaabs lasting capabilities and desire to seize the gap in the Somali governments offensive delays. 

Over the weekend, the Somali capital was rocked by a succession of explosions and gunfire as Shabaab both raided a popular hotel and targeted a local official within the city. 

On Friday, the jihadi group stormed the Pearl Beach Hotel in Mogadishus Lido Beach. Starting with a suicide car bomb, an assault team then entered the fray, seizing the hotel and taking various hostages. Somali security forces were able to end the siege several hours later, though at least nine people were killed by Shabaab during the assault. 

The hotel siege, a tragically common occurrence in Mogadishu, was the first since Nov. 2022, when Shabaab raided the Villa Rays Hotel just meters from the presidential palace. However, in February 2023, it also laid siege to the private residence of a senior military official in Mogadishu, which was also hosting members of the Macawisley (or local clan militias that fight against Shabaab). 

And on Sunday, Shabaab attempted to assassinate a senior police officer in Mogadishu with a remote-detonated explosive attached to his vehicle. That explosion came just a week after a similar explosion in the city targeted a Somali government official and his assistant. 

Targeted assassinations via improvised explosive devices (IED) is a historically-favored tactic of the jihadi group, particularly in Mogadishu. That two similar devices were detonated within a week of each other shows that Shabaabs urban hit squads in Mogadishu remain active. 

The weekend violence in Mogadishu also comes after a series of major assaults on military bases across Somalia. Late last week, Shabaab mounted a raid on an Ethiopian military base in the border town of Doolow in the southern Gedo Region. 

For its part, Shabaab claimed it killed and wounded over 200 Ethiopian troops, though Ethiopia has vehemently denied this assertion. Ethiopia maintains its forces successfully...